In the most recent CFO Survey for Q2 2025 (May19-June6), jointly conducted by Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta, Chief Financial Officers have expressed increased change in economic concerns. Results of the survey show CFO’s top concern have emerged as tariffs and trade policy.
CFO Optimism
Between May 19 and June 6, Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) expressed moderate optimism regarding the broader U.S. economy, rating their confidence at an average of 60.9 out of 100. This represents a slight decline compared to their sentiment earlier in the year. It was 66 at the start of the year.
Trade Policy & Tariffs: A Growing Concern
40% of CFOs listed tariffs and trade policy as their top concern also, the highest level recorded since the survey began tracking the issue in 2020. In the first quarter of 2025 Trade/Tariffs were at 30%.
This chart shows that concern about tariffs and trades exceed other issues again with increased trend among CFOs in the first two quarters of 2025.
CFOs’ Expectations for Firm Performance
The Q2 2025 survey data indicates that CFOs now anticipate stronger growth in prices and unit costs for both 2025 and 2026 compared to their projections from the previous quarter. Conversely, revenue growth expectations have been revised downward.
Specifically, revenue growth forecasts for 2025 have decreased from 6.8% in the first quarter to 5.4% in the current quarter. Meanwhile, price growth expectations have risen from 3.5% to 4.8%, and anticipated unit cost increases have climbed from 3.9% to 5.2%.
CFOs’ Expectations for the U.S. Economy
CFOs forecast in the second quarter of 2025 shows real GDP growth of 1.4% over the next four quarters, it is down from 1.9% first quarter forecast. The perceived probability of negative economic growth has also risen significantly, from 14.5% to 22.7% according to expectations of the CFOs.
Tariffs and Trade Policy: CFO Reactions
In CFO survey at Q2 reported 40% of firms cited tariffs and trade policy as a key concern. Tariffs and trade policy uncertainty leads to firms deciding caution over expansion. Most of them choose to remain as it was, postponing and scale down. Manufacturers were notably more responsive than non-manufacturers to tariff-related uncertainty. Manufacturing firms choose mostly to postpone their planned capital expenditure.
The survey asks CFOs about their action against uncertainty of trade and tariffs and most of the firms, especially manufacturing firms, stated that they will pass through cost increases to customers. Some of the firms want to move up their purchases to avoid future rising costs. Other firms’ actions include revising their business plan and finding new foreign suppliers.
Conclusion
The Q2 2025 CFO Survey shows that many financial leaders are growing more concerned about tariffs and trade policy. In fact, 40% of companies listed it as their top concern, going up from 30% last quarter. With optimism about the U.S. economy slightly declining and expectations for GDP growth revised downward, firms are responding by taking defensive strategies such as postponing capital expenditures, scaling down investments, and passing increased costs onto customers. The tariffs and trade policy are crucial top concerns, particularly among manufacturing firms, underlines how global economic and policy dynamics are directly influencing corporate decision-making.
Richmond Federal Reserve, Duke University Fuqua School of Business & Atlanta Federal Reserve (2025, June 25). The CFO survey: Record concern about tariffs expected to increase costs and prices, reduce hiring and investment [Q2 2025 data and results]. Richmond Fed. https://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/cfo_survey/data_and_results/2025/20250625_data_and_results
